Want a weekly update of all the greatest posts on the web? Subscribe for a weekly email and never miss a story! Email to Bob Williamson in the subject line type SUBSCRIBE

When viewing this video presentation explaining the simple math of the Exponential Function, there are a couple of observations that the Greenhouse Neutral Foundation would like you to consider. We will use by way of example the growth rate of the Chinese economy and by natural linkage it’s consumption of the planets FINITE resources.

Either watch the video first, and then read the facts that will scare you, or read the facts and then see the video. Either way you will make your own determination of how SCARED we all should be!

China has a growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) of 8% although in 2009 it has reportedly despite all other global economies being in recession, increased that to 10.7% for 2009.

To increase gross domestic product, China needs to consume more resources and we have to assume that for some, if not all on balance of its industrial activity, this will be by an equivalent amount, or 8% annually

In calculating the time that it takes to double any rate of consumption or T2 the exponential function
T2 = __70__
% growth per unit time

Thus a growth rate of 5% per year has a doubling time of
T2 = __70__
               5%        = 14 years
A doubling of growth rate every 10 years will occur with any consumption at a rate of 7%
T2 = __70__
               7%       = 10 years

At 8% annual growth rate in China, the doubling of its consumption of it’s raw finite resources will occur every 8.75 years
T2 = __70__
               8%      = 8.75 years

Some growth rates will be limited by the ecosystem ability to go along with the desired rate of growth. For example in 2008 world grain production was 2,226 million tons of this the US consumed 314 million tons and China consumed for the same period 392 million tons. Now with a doubling of demand every 8.75 years, it is easy to see that by September 2016 it will be requiring 784 million tons. By June 2025 it will be consuming 1,568 million tons and by March 2034 it will have exceeded current global production requiring 3,136 million tons. Clearly this can not be done. Another example is in 2007 figures of world annual production of meat was 260 million tons. Of that the US consumed 38 million tons and China nourished itself on 69 million tons. So with an exponential growth of only 8% by September 2015 it will have an appetite for 138 million tons, by June 2024 it will gorge itself on 276 million tons, exceeding current world production and by March 2033 will be asking for 552 million tons. Clearly the weekend BBQ in Australia will need to be a thing of the past.

Let’s assume though that there are plans well underway to secure the raw materials from other countries to continue the economic industrial growth that China now sees as its global right. (We know they have these arrangements with many countries and are securing such similar contracts with Third World counties such as Africa.)

As at 2009 China;
Chinas annual steel consumption was 530 million tonnes; by 2017 = 1060, by 2026 = 2120 and by 2035 = 4240 million tonnes.

China chomped through 76 million tonnes of paper and paperboard in 2009, so what about the world’s trees? By 2017 = 152 millions tonnes, by 2026 = 304, and by 2035 = 608 million tonnes. Goodbye old growth forests.

In 2009 they used 1.4 billion tonnes of cement, which by the way has a CO2-e in greenhouse emissions of 1 tonne per tonne of production! By 2017 = 2.8 billion tonnes, 2026 = 5.6 billion, 2035 it would be 11.2 billion. Anyone see Chinas greenhouse emissions coming down?

As at 2009 China needed 18.7 million tonnes of aluminium, 2017 = 37.4, by 2026 they would like 74.8 and by 2035 please can we have 149.6 million tonnes (CO2-e is 18 kilos per kilo of production) 2.69 billion tonnes of CO2!

In 2009 China required 8 million barrels of oil per day of the world production of 86 million barrels. By 2017 they would like 16 million per day, by 2026, 32 and by 2035 can we have 64 million barrels a day?

China burned their way through 1,406 million tons of coal in 2009. By 2017 that will be 2.8 billion tonnes, by 2026 5.6 billion and by 2035 11.25 billion tonnes and if you doubt their sincerity, let’s not forget they are building one coal fired power station per week!

Where is all this going? UP!